A new earthquake warning system will prepare Canada for dangerous shaking

A new earthquake warning system will prepare Canada for dangerous shaking

成人大片 10 million people live in Canada鈥檚 earthquake-prone zones. Yet few have practical knowledge of what to do with new early warning system alerts which aim to save lives and protect livelihoods.  

By Shona L.van Zijll de Jong, Adjunct Professor, Geological Sciences and Engineering

May 25, 2022

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Vancouver Island鈥檚 historic earthquake was a 7.3 magnitude event that occurred at 10:13 a.m. on June 23, 1946. It damaged buildings in nearby communities, including the Bank of Montreal in Port Alberni.
Vancouver Island鈥檚 historic earthquake was a 7.3 magnitude event that occurred at 10:13 a.m. on June 23, 1946. It damaged buildings in nearby communities, including the Bank of Montreal in Port Alberni. (Natural Resources Canada)

Large earthquakes can wreak enormous violence upon lives, livelihoods, infrastructure and the environment. High-density urban populations in the relatively small, seismically active areas of British Columbia and the Qu茅bec City-Montr茅al-Ottawa corridor leaves residents extremely vulnerable to earthquakes.

A notes that 鈥渁 major earthquake would have a significant economic impact regionally, and cause a domino effect on the economy of Canada, with major impacts on critical infrastructure, such as roads, electricity, communication and agriculture, public assets, residences and much more.鈥

It concluded that a 9.0-magnitude earthquake in British Columbia would rack up almost $75 billion in costs, and a 7.1-magnitude earthquake in the Qu茅bec City-Montr茅al-Ottawa corridor would cost almost $61 billion.

Canada does not have an earthquake early warning system to provide alerts to the 10 million people who live in these areas 鈥 or a national education initiative to develop an earthquake-aware culture. But that will soon change.

10 million at risk

Canada鈥檚 most active seismic zones fall into three main areas:

  • , along the St. Lawrence River in southeastern Qu茅bec.
  • , stretching from the north end of Vancouver Island to Cape Mendocino, Calif., and connected to the , from Haida Gwaii northward along the Alaska coast.
  • , due to post-glacial rebound, where the ground slowly rises as glaciers melt.

Seismologists forecast significant shaking for Qu茅bec (Montr茅al, Qu茅bec City, Rivi猫re-du-Loup), Ontario () and British Columbia ( and ) in the future. But .

For example, the recurrence interval for a large earthquake in the Pacific Northwest is about 500 years 鈥 there have been seven in the past 3,500 years. Seismologists say there鈥檚 a 30 per cent chance of a 鈥 a very powerful quake that occurs at a subduction zone 鈥 in this fault zone in the next 50 years. But earthquakes are quasi-random 鈥 they don鈥檛 occur at regular time intervals.

In my work with communities in , and that have experienced lethal earthquakes, I鈥檝e learned about . Their stories taught me that time lost is lives lost, and that those who took protective action survived.

. With only seconds of advance warning, people can take protective action such as drop, cover and hold on. .

Earthquake-prone communities often experience fatalities, anxiety and fear, and widespread damage to homes, infrastructure and economies. A community with an earthquake-aware culture has grasped lessons from seismology, social science and economics, painfully aware of what damages and losses .

. Their interpretations help us understand how local fault lines will shake during an earthquake, how often the shaking has occurred in a location and .

The front page of Le Soleil newspaper on Feb. 28, 1925, comprising only stories about the earthquake
The 1925 Charlevoix-Kamouiraska earthquake was felt all the way in Virginia and along the Mississippi River. It damaged several towns and cities along the St. Lawrence River and the aftershocks lasted for weeks. (Natural Resources Canada)

2024: All systems go

In March, Natural Resources Canada set up an earthquake-monitoring station , the first station in what will become a national early earthquake warning system by 2024.

The system uses . It aims to reduce the number of injuries, the cost of damage and losses, and the impact to critical infrastructure operations.

Millions of people 鈥 and the Canadian economy 鈥 could benefit from the early earthquake alert system. Once it is fully operational, it should provide five to nine seconds advance warning to those in Haida Gwaii, Queen Charlotte and Masset, B.C., for ruptures in the Queen Charlotte Fault, and 43 to 91 seconds for the mainland towns of Bella Bella, Prince Rupert and Kitimat, B.C. In Qu茅bec, a repeat of the would offer 84 seconds advance warning for Montr茅al and 29 seconds for Qu茅bec City.

How people will respond to the alerts remains unknown. But Natural Resources Canada has funded the to work with the U.S. Geological Survey and the to learn from their experience of building an earthquake-aware culture, as well as with other nations, including Japan, China, Turkey, Greece and Italy.

Challenges and next steps

By 2024, the Canadian earthquake early-warning system will have more than 400 land-based sensors deployed throughout Ontario, Qu茅bec and British Columbia. It will send the alerts to radio, television, internet and cellular networks, allowing people to take action quickly.

The advance notice is meant to avert deaths. A mere 10 to 90 seconds warning could save lives, protect infrastructure and utilities. Researchers, however, still need a better understanding of how Canadians will respond to these alerts.

For example, Canada鈥檚 earthquake hazard maps suggest there are two widely separated seismically active areas: one in Ontario, Qu茅bec and New Brunswick, and the other in British Columbia. But each location will suffer different types of damage and losses after a large earthquake.

These maps give the erroneous impression that the earthquake risk applies to everyone equally. shows distinct geological, political, economic and emergency management contexts between Eastern Canada and Western Canada.

For example, those in Eastern Canada are very vulnerable to seismic hazards: The soft soils in the Charlevoix-Kamouraska seismic zone amplify ground motion and the heritage housing cannot withstand shaking. There鈥檚 also low participation in earthquake preparedness exercises.

According to a , 65 per cent of home owners in Vancouver and Victoria have purchased residential property earthquake insurance. In contrast, in the Charlevoix鈥揔amouraska seismic zone, only two per cent of home owners in Qu茅bec City and five per cent in metropolitan Montr茅al have residential property earthquake insurance.

The ultimate goal of the earthquake early warning system is to ensure that those most at risk 鈥 the disabled, elderly, very young, caregivers and those living in remote rural areas 鈥 have .The Conversation

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, Adjunct Professor, Geological Sciences and Engineering,

This article is republished from under a Creative Commons license. Read the .

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