The Conversation: A U.S.-China trade deal does not slow China鈥檚 rise

The Conversation: A U.S.-China trade deal does not slow China鈥檚 rise

America may have missed a window of opportunity to curb China鈥檚 rise when it pulled out of the Trans-Pacific Partnership.

By James L. Anderson

March 8, 2019

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[Shaghai waterfront]
 The Donald Trump administration is focused on greater access to subsidized Chinese industries and addressing intellectual property theft linked to alleged forced technology transfers to China. (Photo by Ralf Leineweber/Unsplash) 

The original has passed as the United States and China hash out a trade deal amid .

Any U.S.-China trade deal likely falls short compared to what the (TPP) could have been.

Within current talks, Donald Trump鈥檚 administration is focused on greater access to subsidized Chinese industries and addressing intellectual property theft linked to alleged forced technology transfers to China. All of this has an impact on America鈥檚 economic competitiveness .

But is the U.S. adequately managing to don the mantle of global leader?

On the , Trump honoured a campaign promise by withdrawing from the contentious TPP. The historic 12-nation agreement was on track to cover roughly 40 per cent of the global economy.

in Congress, advocacy groups and some members of the American public flatly opposed the agreement. Concerns about the oversized influence of multinational corporations and the controversial investor-state dispute process .

Lost opportunity to rein in China?

But America may have missed a window of opportunity to curb China鈥檚 rise when it pulled out of the TPP.

Scholars and have grappled over if and how China can replace America as the world鈥檚 ranking power. Allison鈥檚 recent work, , discusses the 鈥渨indows of opportunity鈥 the U.S. can exploit to slow the pace of the rising power.

If history is any credible guide, the transition from may help U.S. policy-makers and the public alike to understand the imperatives that surround China鈥檚 rise.

At the turn of the 20th century, America had unprecedented growth, thanks to Alfred Thayer Mahan鈥檚 . And in the early years between the two World Wars, the United States, Great Britain and Japan headlined a global naval arms race.

In 1921, President Warren Harding held the to disarm tensions among the competing navies in the Pacific. The naval powers agreed to discontinue their shipbuilding programs and capped their naval fleets in the region. America also protected holdings in East Asia from the threat of a rising Japan.

. But for Britain, their naval power was now at 鈥渆ye level鈥 with the United States.

The U.K. could not challenge the U.S.

Britain had neither the political will nor the financial ability to oppose America鈥檚 demands, aware that an arms race with the U.S. would likely bankrupt the British economy.

, a symbol of Britain鈥檚 naval dominance, was forced to America鈥檚 rise. Britain鈥檚 reduced Pacific fleet and degraded Anglo-Japanese relations marked a turning point in America鈥檚 ascendancy.

It was not the first time Britain missed an opportunity to slow America鈥檚 rise. The American Civil War offered the chance, but Britain decided against joining on behalf of the Confederacy due to the . Schake also notes the marked an early turning point in the leadership transition. This could have also been a window of opportunity.

How does this apply to current U.S.-China relations? The 鈥渂attleground鈥 remains the same as in 1921; instead, to become the global leader.

Barack Obama鈥檚 administration as a geopolitical instrument to halt China鈥檚 plans. It presented east and southeast Asian nations with an alternative to China鈥檚 coercive diplomacy in the region, such as in the case of .

Reducing trade barriers had the potential to provide America with greater investment opportunities in the Asia-Pacific region. It could have weakened China鈥檚 diplomatic clout while also creating economic incentives for American investment in the area. It exploited a window of opportunity that targeted the source of China鈥檚 rise 鈥 its economy.

Pulling out of the TPP was not solely a product of the current administration 鈥攁 Hillary Clinton administration too. America鈥檚 anti-free trade mood reflects the priority of the public and lawmakers, which is to preserve U.S. jobs and sovereignty.

Shifts in global power are afoot

But shifts in global power may be under way with implications beyond what happens on the home front. A is brewing, China鈥檚 plans for expansion under the continue and South China Sea claims are an extension of China鈥檚 sovereignty.

The rebooted TPP, the 11-nation , is likely to reduce barriers to trade and increase investment opportunities across Asia and Latin America for its member countries, including Canada.

But the agreement, without U.S. representation, hardly lives up to America鈥檚 once-desired aim to create a trade zone in a large swath of East Asia that would isolate China while addressing the global power shifts under way. A renegotiated CPTPP, with American backing, may have even strengthened the Trump administration鈥檚 position in its current trade negotiations with the Chinese.

The U.K. was unable to prevent the last global leadership transition due to missed windows of opportunity and deliberate accommodation. An America that views China鈥檚 rise through a short-term bilateral lens runs the risk of accidentally accommodating Chinese efforts to replace America.

Taking advantage of a window of opportunity may be key to curbing the next global leadership transition 鈥攁nd the CPTPP may be the window that America needs before we are forced to accommodate to China鈥檚 interests. The U.S. should reconsider joining the pact if it wants any shot at slowing China鈥檚 rise.The Conversation


is Visiting Fulbright Fellow at 成人大片's Centre for International and Defence Policy.

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