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hybrid event: In-Person or online

2022 was the bloodiest year for conflicts since 1994, the year of tragic genocides in the former Yugoslavia and Rwanda. 2023 looks unlikely to reverse the trend, while contending approaches to global order by rival powers mark divisions that seem increasingly insurmountable. The rise of ‘tit-for-tat’ measures since the initiation of the US trade war aimed at China has raised tensions and led to restructuring of domestic policies worldwide toward ‘resilience’ – a byword for anticipating conflict and the decreasing reliance on interdependence. Yet seen from a game-theoretic perspective, ‘tit-for-tat’ is a strategy that is not solely negative or hostile, but one that also contains its own solution, if positive actions can be reinforced. Confidence-building measures (CBMs) have been long considered a critical part of the security toolkit in the Indo-Pacific. Yet 30 years of their implementation have not seemed to have much effect as rivalries grow in the region. This seminar considers the prospects for rethinking CBMs as needs grow for addressing retaliatory actions and transactionalism in an age of competition.